Lower sales in Argentina result in lower inflation in January compared to December

On Wednesday, January 14th, the INDEC will release inflation data for the month. According to consultants, the inflation rate is estimated to range between 20% and 23%. This is lower than December’s rate of 25.5%, with a slight decrease in the third week of the month.

A first indication of what happened in January comes from the government of Buenos Aires, which usually closely mirrors national CPI levels. In Buenos Aires, inflation rose by 21.7% – the highest since the start of statistical series in 2012. The interannual variation was an impressive 238.5%.

Economist RocĂ­o Bisang from EcoGo predicts an inflation rate of 21.2% for January, citing factors such as increases in prepaid bills for Health and Transportation, as well as rising gasoline and train/bus prices that weighed heavily on these sectors.

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director at Equilibra consulting firm, expects preliminary data to come in at around 22.5% for January – lower than December’s figure. He attributes this slowing pace to a fall in purchasing power due to wages lagging behind prices. This led to a decrease in demand across various sectors including cars, shopping malls, supermarkets, gasoline stations and retail stores.

Ferreres & Associados conducted a study using over fifteen thousand GBA prices and found that January’s inflation would likely end up around 18% monthly with an interannual growth rate of approximately 244.5%. Core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5%, marking an increase of about 268.8% annually when compared to last year’s figures.

By Editor

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