On Wednesday, January 14th, the INDEC will release inflation data for the month. According to consultants, the inflation rate is estimated to range between 20% and 23%. This is lower than December’s rate of 25.5%, with a slight decrease in the third week of the month.
A first indication of what happened in January comes from the government of Buenos Aires, which usually closely mirrors national CPI levels. In Buenos Aires, inflation rose by 21.7% – the highest since the start of statistical series in 2012. The interannual variation was an impressive 238.5%.
Economist Rocío Bisang from EcoGo predicts an inflation rate of 21.2% for January, citing factors such as increases in prepaid bills for Health and Transportation, as well as rising gasoline and train/bus prices that weighed heavily on these sectors.
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director at Equilibra consulting firm, expects preliminary data to come in at around 22.5% for January – lower than December’s figure. He attributes this slowing pace to a fall in purchasing power due to wages lagging behind prices. This led to a decrease in demand across various sectors including cars, shopping malls, supermarkets, gasoline stations and retail stores.
Ferreres & Associados conducted a study using over fifteen thousand GBA prices and found that January’s inflation would likely end up around 18% monthly with an interannual growth rate of approximately 244.5%. Core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5%, marking an increase of about 268.8% annually when compared to last year’s figures.